Bitcoin has fallen to one-month lows and traders are ready with their BTC price targets — which will come true?
The aggregate cost price of various hodlers is now coming into play as fears rise of a return below $60,000.
BTC price bottom levels track hodlers' cost basis
Bitcoin (BTC) surprised on June 14 by delivering another 3.5% dip, taking BTC/USD to $64,950 on Bitstamp.
Building on existing weakness, the move took current week-to-date losses to more than 6.7% — and BTC price action to its lowest levels since mid-May, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
“Bitcoin just lost technical support at the 50-Day Moving Average,” Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, wrote in part of market coverage on X (formerly Twitter).
“If bulls lose support at $65k, be prepared for $60k or lower.”
While $65,000 managed to hold, others are looking for possible areas to call a near-term BTC price floor while new all-time highs look increasingly out of reach.
For Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, hodlers’ cost bases are due to receive a new market test.
These levels, also known as realized price, refer to the aggregate buy-in price for investors hodling coins for various lengths of time.
Of particular interest are short-term holders (STHs) — entities holding a given unit of BTC for up to 155 days who represent the more speculative end of the hodler spectrum. As Cointelegraph reported, their cost basis has functioned as bull market support almost flawlessly since the start of 2023.
CryptoQuant currently shows the STH realized price to be $62,200.
Another cohort, those hodling for between three and six months, have a realized price of $55,500, while Bitcoin’s “diamond hands,” the long-term holders, have their cost basis at $24,300.
“How long the correction might last will be determined by the market, but in previous cycles, similar situations lasted from 65 to 371 days,” Adler commented.
Bitcoin trader watches for "illiquid squeeze"
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on concerns that $60,000 may still return to the BTC/USD chart — and that even this might not hold as support.
Related: 3 reasons why $65K marks the bottom for Bitcoin
Should such a scenario occur, longtime trader Peter Brandt warned, the path to as low as $48,000 will come into play.
Others are focused on shorter-term areas of interest based on exchange order book activity. Among them is popular trader Skew, who on June 15 revealed thickening bid liquidity around $62,000.
“Looks like the bid wall around $65K did get partially front run here. There's noticeably a large gap between bids and asks here,” he noted about the landscape of largest global exchange Binance.
“Quoted ask liquidity around $70K currently. So there's room for forcing an illiquid squeeze in which id be watching for passive supply selling into it ($68K - $69K). Some fresh bid liquidity quoted around $63K - $62K with bulk of the demand around $60K if $65K is lost.”
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows a line of liquidity at $64,900 — just beneath the intraday lows — increasing in size at the time of writing.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
