3 reasons why Bitcoin analysts believe BTC price recovery is overdue

    2024.06.15 | exchangesranking | 37onlookers

    Bitcoin (BTC) price is down 6.5% over the last seven days and currently trades 10% below its all-time high of $73,835 reached on March 14.

    BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

    Despite this performance, the technical setup, positive investor interest and onchain data make Bitcoin analysts believe that a trend reversal into an exponential uptrend could be in the making.

    Bitcoin price holds above key support areas

    Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin price oscillating between $58,000 and $72,000 for over ten weeks since turning away from new all-time highs.

    Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the current price range is retesting a zone that posed a stiff resistance when the BTC hit previous all-time highs, as observed by popular analyst Rekt Capital.

    According to Rekt Capital, this area is now supporting BTC since the ongoing sell-off has not substantially pulled the price below this range.

    “Bitcoin has successfully retested the black Mid-Range as support (~$66,000) on the recent pullback. Any downside volatility below black is bonus territory.”
    BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital

    Fellow analyst Moustache made the same observation, sharing a BTC/USD three-week chart showing that the price was trading at a level just above the 0.5 line (MZ BTC Bottom-Indicator).

    This indicator uses the Elliot Wave Oscillator Methodology applied on “BTC Golden Bottom with Adaptive Moving Average” and Relative Strength Index of Resulted EVO to form an Oscillator to detect trend health in Bitcoin price.

    According to Moustache, BTC price has retested this line only three times in the past—in 2012, 2017 and 2020. In those cases, previous all-time highs supported Bitcoin’s price, after which the coin went on a parabolic uptrend, hitting new record highs.

    “In 2012, 2017 and 2020, this was the start signal for the most euphoric time in crypto.”
    BTC/USD three-week chart. Source: Moustache

    In earlier X post on June 12, Moustache commented on a similar set-up the BBWP indicator, saying that BTC was going to experience high after retesting the line.

    “We’re talking about a volatility indicator here. Above the EMA 20-Line, it has always been bullish so far.”

    High crowd buying interest backs Bitcoin’s potential upside

    Responding to the market’s drawdown over the last few days, Bitcoin investors felt it was time to take advantage of the entry into local dips and buy more BTC in the dips, according to market intelligence firm Santiment.

    The analytics firm noted that Bitcoin’s latest drop below $67,000 on June 13 resulted in the second-largest “spike in crowd $BTC buying interest in the past two months.”

    In a June 14 post on the X social platform, Santiment said,

    “Interest in Buying Bitcoin surges, while selling interest stays dormant after a dip to $66.6K.”
    “Buy BTC” vs. “sell BTC” mentions. Source: Santiment

    This means retail investors are showing signs of confidence as they believe that the latest price drops were not “warranted, and buy in hopes of a quick recovery.”

    Additional data from Alternative, a platform that analyzes “emotions and sentiments” around Bitcoin, shows that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is in the “greed” zone at 74, up from 70 on June 13 and last month’s 64.

    Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative. me

    Overall, this is a positive sign, as positive social sentiment signals a bullish outlook among different cohorts of investors.

    Related: Can Bitcoin whales protect BTC price from new $48K downside target?

    Declining Bitcoin balance on exchanges

    Data from onchain metrics analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that BTC balance on exchanges reached a five-year low of 2.822 million BTC after dropping 3.6% over the last 30 days.

    BTC reserve on exchanges. Source: CrytoQuant

    Decreasing BTC balances on exchanges simply means investors could be withdrawing their tokens into self-custody wallets, indicating a lack of intention to sell in anticipation of a future price increase.

    This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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