Despite unfavorable odds from several crypto analysts and the broader crypto community regarding spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETF) chances of approval by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some analysts opine that "there is room for surprise."
“If by some chance the SEC decides to approve then so many will be caught severely offside,” crypto trader Matthew Hyland told his 142,000 X followers in a May 17 post.
“If 90% of people think the ETH ETF will be denied, and the majority of those people think it will lead to a crypto crash then who will actually be selling?,” he added, before declaring that the expectation of denial is "priced in." At the time of publication, Ether (ETH) is trading at $3,102, as per CoinMarketCap data.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has placed his odds for approval at 35%, while the broader crypto community has set their estimates closer to the 7% mark, according to New York-based crypto predictions platform Polymarket.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange Coinbase institutional research analyst David Han believes “there is room for surprise to the upside on this decision.”
“We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%,” Han stated in Coinbase’s monthly outlook report published on May 15.
Related: Filing suggests SEC is exploring grounds to deny spot Ether ETFs
Han explained that as cryptocurrency becomes a more prominent issue for voters leading up to the upcoming United States election in November, the SEC will be less likely to maintain its stance on a denial decision.
“As crypto begins to take form as an election issue, it’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial,” he stated.
Han further argued that even if the VanEck and Ark Invest ETF applications are denied by the initial deadline of May 23, there is a strong possibility that litigation could overturn that decision.
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