There are approximately 34 days until the Bitcoin halving will reduce the Bitcoin (BTC) issuance rate by half. But this supply issuance reduction isn’t priced in by the crypto market, according to Basile Maire, co-founder of D8X decentralized exchange and former executive director at UBS.
“There seems to be more demand and less supply, so according to the old economic rules, prices have to move up. So the question now: is the [Bitcoin halving] priced in? Probably not to the full extent,” Maire told Cointelegraph in an exclusive interview.
Bitcoin breached the $71,000 mark for the first time on March 11, which is approximately 37 days before the upcoming Bitcoin halving will cut the block rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.
Bitcoin futures data suggest that people are expecting Bitcoin to rise up to the $100,000 milestone by May, Maire told Cointelegraph:
“The option data says that people expect Bitcoin price to be in the range of $80,000 to $100,000. For instance, in May, there was quite a spike in open interest for $100,000. While it’s not a big volume [spike]. I still think this means something.”
Bitcoin’s price trajectory will be greatly influenced by the upcoming presidential election in the United States, which is expected to be an overall positive catalyst for the crypto market, according to Maire.
“They will want to make sure that traditional markets obviously don't crash and that always has a positive effect on the crypto markets, especially now that there's a bigger connection between the two thanks to the ETFs. So currently the market outlook is very positive, despite huge volatility.”
Related: Is Bitcoin due for a correction with 5 weeks till the halving?
The inflows generated by the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a significant component of Bitcoin’s rally to new highs, along with anticipation of the halving, Sergei Gorev, a risk manager at fintech platform YouHodler, told Cointelegraph:
“Spot Bitcoin ETFs buy 10 times more Bitcoin daily than miners produce each day."
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $60.5 billion in total on-chain holdings on March 13. Provided that the past two weeks’ inflows continue at the same rate, the Bitcoin ETFs are projected to absorb 8.82% of the BTC supply on a yearly basis, according to Dune data.
Related: Grayscale files for ‘mini’ spot Bitcoin ETF
