Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week with a wobble and fresh all-time highs as BTC price volatility stays firmly in charge.
The largest cryptocurrency has sealed its highest-ever weekly close, but bulls continue to face stiff resistance when it comes to breaking higher.
As the battle for price discovery rages, Bitcoin is caught in a familiar state of flux — selling pressure at key psychological price levels combined with the relentless bid from the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Which will gain the upper hand this week?
Few were prepared for the scale of influence now coming from ETF buying. Even longtime bulls are reevaluating where they think BTC/USD could be in the coming years, with $1 million increasingly seen as conservative in the long term.
Others conversely warn that the accelerating bull run may spark a macro BTC price top sooner than anticipated.
Closer to the present, United States macro data is poised for release in what should “set the tone” for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates.
With Bitcoin at a crossroads, meanwhile, miners are wasting no time in locking in profit prior to April’s block subsidy halving.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at these topics and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price volatility catalysts to come.
Record weekly highs precede BTC price discovery
Bitcoin enjoyed classic volatility into the March 10 weekly close — one which turned out to be easily the highest in history.
At $69,000, the high nonetheless failed to last, as a precipitous downside wick took BTC/USD to $67,120 minutes later, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.
Echoing previous taps of the $69,000 area from last week, a relief bounce then set in — one which ultimately took Bitcoin to new all-time highs during the March 11 Asia trading session.
“Price still getting smacked down around $70K with lack of spot bid lifting those large asks,” popular trader Skew wrote in part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter).
Skew highlighted the area between $63,500 and $65,500 as key to preserving the current uptrend should a more significant drop enter next.
“Starting to see more considerable bids from $60K, likely plunge protection bids,” he noted about spot order book behavior on the largest global exchange, Binance.
“Overall condensed price chop here with lack of passive spot buyers.”
Adding to the picture, Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, revealed on-chain movement of coins previously dormant for up to a decade.
He referenced the Spent Output Age Bands metric, which groups coins involved in transactions by how long they were previously stationary on the network.
“Before the drawdown, there was a movement of 2,877 BTC with an age of 7 to 10 years,” he wrote about the weekly close.
CPI week looms with Fed rate cut bets absent
Another “classic” week in terms of U.S. macroeconomic data is due to be headlined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for February.
Due on March 12, CPI makes for volatile short-term trading across risk assets, while Bitcoin offers mixed reactions.
The current narrative around inflation and Fed policy remains disjointed. Markets are eager to see interest rate cuts, while Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell last week, are attempting to cool their expectations.
The nature of CPI figures and other data points will thus form a key reference point, with the next Fed meeting just over one week away.
“A hot CPI inflation report this week would really set the tone of the March Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its weekly diary post on X.
“Huge week ahead.”
According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, hardly anyone sees a surprise rate cut at this month’s gathering, with the odds at a mere 3% at the time of writing.
Other key data to come this week include the Producer Price Index, or PPI, along with jobless claims on March 13 and 15, respectively.
ETF Bitcoin buyer pressure seen expanding
Bitcoin market observers are waiting for one thing as the week begins: the resumption of buying by the spot ETFs.
Now the most successful ETF launch in history, the nine participants have presided over a BTC price transformation that many see continuing.
While reservations are visible, ETFs may see waning demand and thus no longer buoy the price trajectory, so a sense of optimism among institutions now stands out.
Last week, Cathie Wood, CEO of asset manager ARK Invest, said that the firm’s $1 million BTC price target for 2023 had been “brought forward.”
“No platform has approved Bitcoin yet, so all of this price action has happened before they approve it, and so we haven’t even begun,” she said about the absence of major U.S. wirehouses such as Morgan Stanley and UBS.
As Cointelegraph subsequently reported, industry insiders are gearing up for this to happen and the price impact that could follow.
In a memo on March 9, crypto-native asset manager Bitwise listed “major warehouses,” “institutional consultants” and “large corporations” as being next in line to add BTC exposure.
“Based on current trends, I’d suspect we’ll see our first significant flows from these three groups in Q2 2024, and I think those flows will accelerate throughout the year as these investors become more comfortable with the new products,” chief investment officer Matt Hougan wrote.
Puell Multiple nears multi-year high amid mushrooming miner outflows
Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high before its next halving — a unique event in its history.
This has surprised many, and miners appear to be no exception. Despite the upcoming halving exposing them to 50% less “new” BTC per block, miners have significantly upped their selling around the highs.
The phenomenon has been witnessed throughout 2024, with outflows from miner wallets beginning at the launch of the ETFs on Jan. 11, CryptoQuant data shows.
Total daily revenue on March 7, meanwhile, was the second-highest ever at $75.9 million, CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno revealed on X.
“With the recent price of Bitcoin soaring, miner revenues have rapidly increased,” trading suite Decentrader continued on the topic on March 11.
Decentrader referenced the Puell Multiple — a measure of the value of coin issuance against its yearly moving average — hitting some of its highest levels in six years. The Multiple functions as a guide to macro tops and bottoms.
“That has resulted in a Puell Multiple score of +2.4 which is historically on the high side - though not as high as previous cycle peaks,” it noted.
Hodlers stay resistant to selling
Amid the inbound price discovery, seasoned Bitcoin hodlers are keeping their hard-earned coins firmly in their wallets.
Related: Bitcoin accumulation phase ends as ETFs fuel new $100K BTC price target
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows long-term holders (LTHs) not yet matching transfer volumes seen during 2021, the year when BTC/USD first hit $69,000.
The largest recent spike of around 72,000 BTC, in fact, occurred on Feb. 24, with $70,000 and higher so far not generating a larger single-day tally.
According to crypto education resource On-Chain College, meanwhile, the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) for LTHs, while strong, is not yet at levels systematic of a blow-off top.
“Bitcoin's most convicted holders are still holding at unrealized profit levels that usually occur well before the cycle peak,” it told X followers on March 11.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
