Spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could begin trading on Jan. 11, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, following the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Seyffart posted on X (formerly Twitter) that several Form S-1 prospectuses are “going effective,” meaning that spot Bitcoin ETFs could begin trading soon after. “There are no more steps needed,” he said. “Everyone is gonna be ready for tomorrow.”
We're seeing a bunch of these prospectuses going Effective. S-1's approvals are being checked off.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 10, 2024
✔️19b-4 Aprrovals
✔️ Effective Prospectuses (S-1's)
These things will indeed begin trading tomorrow. There are no more steps needed pic.twitter.com/YmYyw8b0C9
Seyffart told Cointelegraph on Jan. 2 — before the ETFs were approved — that he expects a spot Bitcoin ETF to launch within “a few days” of approval. However, he updated his statement after spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, saying they could begin trading within a day of receiving approved S-1s. He revised his forecast once again as they started streaming in.
Previous crypto-related ETF products typically launched within two weeks of approval.
ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF was the first SEC-approved Bitcoin-linked ETF, which was approved on Oct. 11, 2021, and started trading eight days later on Oct. 19, 2021. Similarly, Valkyrie’s move to add Ether (ETH) futures to its existing Bitcoin Strategy ETF received the green light from the SEC on Sept. 28, 2023, and started trading seven days later on Oct. 5.
“That said. This isn’t like the futures ETF. The process is different. So it could theoretically be weeks […] but I think it will be days,” Seyffart added in a previous interview.
Related: Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows could dwarf all 163 crypto ETPs today
Meanwhile, global fund manager VanEck previously estimated that roughly $2.4 billion would flow into spot Bitcoin products in the first quarter of 2024.
Looking at the bigger picture, crypto investment fund Bitwise predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be “the most successful” ETF product ever launched and could capture a staggering $72 billion worth of assets under management within five years.
However, not everyone believes that Bitcoin ETFs will shatter records so quickly. VanEck adviser Gabor Gurbacs argues that the early days of Bitcoin ETFs will likely be regarded as a “let down” but could bring trillions of dollars worth of new capital into the industry in the long run.
My case for $2.5 Trillion Bitcoin flows is pretty simple. There is roughly $500 Trillion in assets globally. An assumed 0.5% global allocation would mean $2.5 Trillion flows plus appreciation long term, plus additional fund and FoF investment and credit that comes with it.
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) January 8, 2024
If… pic.twitter.com/SYOASiHUg3
The approval paves the way for traditional financial giants, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, with trillions of dollars in assets under management, to launch an investment vehicle that provides institutional investors in the U.S. with regulated exposure to Bitcoin for the first time.
Despite the speculation around the funds’ short-term performance, analysts agree that spot ETFs will be a boon for the price of Bitcoin in the long term. Crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital predicted that Bitcoin will be trading at least 74% higher by the end of 2024.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $46,410, up 1.52% from the time the ETF was approved.
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