Over $12 million was placed on a Polygon-based decentralized predictions market to bet on whether the United States would approve a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) before mid-January.
The bets were conducted on Polymarket, a predictions market, with a total of $12.6 million in wagers betting either “YES” or “NO” to spot Bitcoin ETFs being approved before Jan. 15.
The bet began in early December 2023 and concluded on Jan. 10 when the SEC approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs.
gg
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 10, 2024
it's payday motherfuckers pic.twitter.com/QM9Df74fbG
However, some disgruntled losers that bet on “NO” have been seen quibbling in the comments section about the terminology of the wager, claiming that the bet was still on because the SEC’s official statement referred to exchange-traded products, not ETFs.
Polymarket previously stated that “the primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
Prediction market activity has surged leading up to the highly anticipated SEC decision.
According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket saw more volume than OpenSea on Jan. 10, with $5.7 million versus $3.9 million for the nonfungible token marketplace.
The prediction market also has a similar running bet on the approval of a spot Ether ETF by May 31.
So far, just $4,155 has been wagered on the Ether (ETH) ETF outcome, with “YES” votes leading by 75%, with the platform previously claiming “you simply aren’t bullish enough.”
you simply aren't bullish enough pic.twitter.com/QJjrfLiyet
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 10, 2024
Related: Crypto traders gamble $1.5M on Bitcoin ETF approval results
Prediction markets can be used to bet on anything from election results to sports outcomes to crypto prices. More than $5 million has already been wagered on Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States election in November.
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