As the crypto community eagerly awaits the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, some traders are using this time of suspense to gamble on whether they get approved by Jan. 15.
At the Polygon-based gambling site Polymarket, traders have placed their “Yes” or “No” bets on whether the Bitcoin ETF applications will be approved. At the time of writing, around $1.5 million worth of bets have been placed, with most of the traders buying shares of “Yes.”
The value of a share, which represents the odds of whether the result will be a yes or a no, fluctuates similarly to the crypto market. At the time of writing, the cost of a Yes share is $0.79, while a No share is $0.21. One of the top holders with the pseudonym “kiwi” holds around $421,000 of Yes shares. On the other hand, the top holder for No holds only around $15,000 in No shares.
According to Polymarket, the market will resolve to “Yes” if any spot Bitcoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by Jan.15, 2024, at 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This means holders of either bets will see their earnings or losses by the deadline set.
The site says the primary resolution source for the market will be information from the SEC. However, it added that a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
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Meanwhile, some Redditors criticized the betting, while others got creative with their jokes. In the Cryptocurrency subreddit, a user called the bet stupid and described it as “putting up dollars to win dimes.” On the other hand, a community member wrote that they were about to lose their kid’s college fund, and another apologized to their “crypto grandkids” for what they were about to do.
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