The Big Bang of artificial intelligence exploded in late 2022 when OpenAI’s ChatGPT large language model AI became public. The ChatGPT boom prompted others to challenge its exclusive monopoly position, with Google creating Bard — which has become a serious contender — and Elon Musk launching his own beta platform, nicknamed Grok, in late 2023. Even more projects are in the pipeline.
As Microsoft founder Bill Gates mentioned in his end-of-the-year analysis on his personal blog, AI has become the solution for everything:
“AI can be used to improve access to education, mental health, and more. [...] I’ve always been a firm believer in the power of innovation to offer every child an equal chance to survive and thrive. AI is no exception.”
Well, what if this precious wisdom is instead used to answer the fundamental questions of the crypto space? How will Bitcoin (BTC) behave in 2024? How will a certain altcoin perform? When will institutional investment inject liquidity into the crypto markets? Is crypto AI merely hype?
All joking aside, Cointelegraph explores whether the AI genie that escaped from its bottle can offer valuable insights for 2024.
Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high in 2024?
Google’s Bard found it “challenging” to predict the future price of a “volatile asset like Bitcoin,” but it eventually gave in and dared answer based on analysts’ views.
Based on its all-around knowledge, Bitcoin’s 2024 price high will peak at a new all-time high of around $120,000:
“Several analysts have predicted that Bitcoin could reach a price of $120,000 in 2024. These predictions are based on various factors, including the Bitcoin halving, growing adoption, regulatory clarity, and the potential for a spot Bitcoin ETF [exchange-traded fund] approval.”
Bard estimated BTC’s general price for 2024 to be between $50,000 to $120,000. The range is wide — an easy way to achieve a successful prediction. At the time of writing, BTC’s price is hanging around $42,000. Therefore, Bitcoin reaching $50,000 in 2024 is not a wild idea.
When asked how the highest valuation was calculated, Bard revealed that $120,000 seems to have been a magic number for several experts.
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In July, analysts from Standard Chartered predicted BTC could reach this price by the end of 2024. The British multinational bank cited the Bitcoin halving, growing institutional adoption and the potential for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval to back up its bullish forecast.
Bing’s implementation of ChatGPT matches the $120,000 price target.
However, both AIs missed out on one of the latest predictions. PlanB, one of the most popular — yet controversial — analysts in the cryptocurrency space, recently shared his bullish prediction for Bitcoin for 2024: an astronomical $532,000.
The analyst highlighted the development of a perfect storm of conditions for a new bull market cycle. PlanB assembled a collection of charts, including his famous Stock-to-Flow and Market Cycle Model, as evidence. According to him, Bitcoin is “beyond the point of no return.”
When will the SEC approve a spot Bitcoin ETF?
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States is expected to inject trillions of dollars into the crypto market. Eight countries already have this investment fund mechanism, including neighboring Canada.
Crypto investors are restless to hear the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s final decision regarding the possible approval. There are currently numerous proposals for spot BTC ETFs, with several companies hoping to join the frontlines of this new gold rush.
The SEC has, thus far, been reluctant to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. As Bard pointed out, the SEC is concerned about the lack of regulation, Bitcoin’s volatility and the potential manipulation of crypto markets.
According to Bard, the following factors could influence the SEC’s decision:
The development of a reliable, regulated spot Bitcoin market: If a spot Bitcoin market that is reliable and regulated can be developed, it would be more likely to meet the SEC’s criteria for approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.The growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutions: If more institutions start to invest in Bitcoin, it would signal to the SEC that there is a strong demand for Bitcoin-related products and that a spot Bitcoin ETF would be more likely to be successful.The overall regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies: If the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies becomes more favorable, it would also make it more likely that the SEC would approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.The SEC certainly feels the pressure, especially given that BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager and one of several spot Bitcoin ETF applicants — boasts a 575-1 ETF approval rate. BlackRock's experience with ETFs provides the SEC with a reliable actor for its launch.
The long list of applications from big players may show the growing rate of Bitcoin adoption among institutions, but the spot Bitcoin market still has no clear guidelines, and the broader regulatory environment remains hazardous for the U.S. crypto industry. The main positive contributing factor, according to Bard’s guidelines, is the presence of BlackRock, which may have changed the question from “if” to “when” an approval will occur.
Bard and ChatGPT were asked when the SEC would approve such a spot Bitcoin ETF. Bard predicted “early 2024,” while ChatGPT said “January” but remarked on the possibility of having to wait until April 2024 based on the opinion of Steven Schoenfeld, a former BlackRock executive.
However, since Schoenfeld shared his perspective, the SEC has been very active in what may seem like an apparent shift from a passive to an active approach. There have been many meetings between SEC and ETF candidates, and recent analyst opinions seem to set Jan. 10 as the plausible date for approving the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.
What are the upcoming crypto trends for 2024?
Most in the crypto community believe 2024 will be a promising, positive year due to the bullish conditions for BTC’s price. Each AI has a different approach concerning the future trends within the crypto industry.
Bard’s approach is pinned on institutional investment. The Google AI predicted that 2024 will see growth in crypto adoption by institutions as they use digital assets to store value or hedge against inflation. Cryptocurrency prices will rise as investments from institutions become mainstream.
We may never see this type of dominance in financial markets ever again. pic.twitter.com/D4TwQhflzI
— Pomp (@APompliano) December 6, 2023
ChatGPT focuses more so on a technical level, predicting five upcoming trends:
Decentralized private identifiers (DePINs): Advancements in privacy-focused solutions are expected from cryptographic identifiers that allow users to control their personal data securely. Restaking protocols: Staking is already widespread, but “restaking” protocols will emerge. Data availability layers: As blockchain networks grow, ensuring data availability becomes crucial. New layers will enhance data storage and retrieval mechanisms.Real-world asset tokenization: Beyond cryptocurrencies, 2024 will have more assets (like real estate, art or stocks) tokenized on blockchains, making them more accessible.AI cryptocurrencies: Artificial intelligence integrated with blockchain technology will lead to innovative applications, such as AI-driven trading algorithms and predictive analytics.What does an AI think about the crypto AI hype?
The AI crypto narrative is beginning to skyrocket, similar to the nonfungible token (NFT) and meme crazes of the last bull cycle. These trends were sudden, explosive and didn’t last long. Given that Bard’s and ChatGPT’s DNA is made of AI software, Cointelegraph asked: “As an AI, do you think crypto AI is just hype?”
ChatGPT provided a robotic answer: “As an AI language model, I don’t hold opinions or beliefs.” Bard replied bluntly, “No, I don’t think crypto AI is just hype. AI has the potential to revolutionize the crypto space in a number of ways.” It then offered the following reasons:
AI is a proven technology with a wide range of applications. There is no reason to believe that AI cannot be used to solve problems in the crypto space as well.The crypto space is a large and growing market. The global crypto market is worth billions of dollars and is growing rapidly. This provides a large potential market for AI solutions.There are a number of startups and established companies developing AI solutions for the crypto space. This shows that there is real demand for AI in this industry.The government is starting to support the development of AI in the crypto space. This is a sign that AI is being taken seriously as a potential solution to problems in the crypto space.The AI genie isn’t such a genius, for now
Many people may be astonished at the immediate answers AI can offer. These programs may seem like ancient bearers of wisdom, but beware — they are still in their learning phases.
Google’s Bard and OpenAI’s ChatGPT are still young and still being fine-tuned. As a human user, their knowledge still needs to be double-checked. For example, when Bard was asked which altcoins have the most potential for 2024, it spat out 10 candidates — and the failed Terra ecosystem token LUNA (LUNA) was among the top three. Bard probably shouldn’t pursue a career in trading, so its advice should be taken with a grain of salt.
With AI wisdom or not, 2024 does seem to be a promising year for the crypto markets. Buckle up, as 2024 has just begun.
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