A trending move in an asset class attracts traders, while a dull price action drives investors to the sidelines. Bitcoin (BTC) has largely been stuck in a range for the past several months, which could be one of the reasons for the drop in spot volumes. Bloomberg reported on Oct. 11 that Coinbase’s spot trading volume plunged 52% in Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2022.
While the short-term remains uncertain, traders need to be watchful because long consolidations are generally followed by an explosive price action. The only problem is that it is difficult to predict the direction of breakout with certainty. Considering that the bulls have not allowed Bitcoin to dip back below $25,000 in the past few months, it increases the likelihood of an upside breakout.
Investing legend Paul Tudor Jones said in a recent interview on CNBC that he is not bullish on the equities markets as he believes that an escalation in the Israel–Hamas conflict may bring about a risk-off sentiment. If that happens, it will be bullish for gold and Bitcoin, Jones added.
Wil bears sink Bitcoin below the immediate support and could that cause a further? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin sliced through the 20-day exponential moving average ($27,148) on Oct. 11 but the bears could not tug the price below the 50-day simple moving average ($26,634).
The bulls successfully defended the 50-day SMA on Oct. 11 and Oct. 12 but they are struggling to start a rebound. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The bears will next attempt to sink the price below the 50-day SMA and come out on top. If this level gives way, the BTC/USDT pair could retest the strong support at $26,000. This level is likely to witness aggressive buying by the bulls.
A rally above the 20-day EMA will be the first indication of strength. The pair could then climb to the stiff overhead resistance at $28,143. This is an important level to watch out for because a close above it could signal the start of a short-term up-move.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) dipped to the critical support at $1,531 on Oct. 12 but a minor positive is that the bulls successfully held this level.
The RSI is showing signs of a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. The bulls will try to push the price to the moving averages where the bears are again likely to mount a strong defense.
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA ($1,606), it will suggest that bears remain in command. The ETH/USDT pair could then crumble below $1,531 and start its descent word $1,368.
If bulls want to prevent the fall, they will have to kick the price above the moving averages. The pair may then climb to $1,746 where the bulls may again face strong selling by the bears.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) fell to the strong support at $203 but the long tail on the candlestick shows that the bulls are protecting the level with force.
The bulls will have to quickly thrust the price above the moving averages and the downtrend line to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. The BNB/USDT pair could then start an up-move to $235 and later to $250.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will indicate that every minor rise is being sold into. A break below the $203 support will complete a descending triangle pattern, which could start a downward move to $183.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) fell below the uptrend line on Oct. 11, indicating that the bullish pressure is reducing. The drop suggests that the price will continue to oscillate between $0.41 and $0.56 for a while longer.
There is support at $0.46 but if it cracks, the XRP/USDT pair may tumble to the important level at $0.41. The bulls are expected to buy this dip aggressively, which could keep the range-bound action intact.
On the upside, a break and close above the moving averages will be the first sign of strength. The buyers will then make one more attempt to drive the price to the overhead resistance at $0.56. A break and close above this level will indicate the start of a new potential uptrend.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) slipped below the 20-day EMA ($21.72) on Oct. 12, indicating that the bears are maintaining their pressure.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The bears will try to strengthen their position by dragging the price below the 50-day SMA ($20.44). If they do that, the SOL/USDT pair could slump to $17.33.
On the other hand, if the price turns up and rises above $22.50, it will tilt the short-term advantage in favor of the buyers. The pair could then rise to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has formed long tails on successive candlesticks since Oct. 9 but the bulls failed to start a recovery. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The ADA/USDT pair is near the $0.24 support and the RSI is showing signs of a positive divergence. This suggests that the selling pressure is reducing and a relief rally is possible. The first stop on the upside is likely to be the moving averages. If this resistance is crossed, the pair may reach $0.27 and then $0.28.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and skids below $0.24, it will indicate that the bears are in no mood to relent. That could clear the path for a fall to $0.22 and eventually to $0.20.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading below the $0.06 support since Oct. 9, suggesting that the markets have accepted the lower levels.
The bears will try to sink the price to the vital support at $0.055. This level is likely to witness strong buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off this level, the DOGE/USDT pair may consolidate between $0.055 and $0.06 for some time.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. If bulls want to make a comeback, they will have to quickly propel the price above the moving averages. That could start a recovery to $0.07.
Related: Why is Bitcoin price stuck?
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) has been in a corrective phase for the past few days. Profit booking by the traders pulled the price below the 50-day SMA ($1.98) on Oct. 12.
The bulls are trying to reclaim the level and push the price back above the moving averages over the next few days. If they manage to do that, it will indicate that the break below the 50-day SMA may have been a bear trap. That could open the doors for a possible rise to $2.31.
Instead, if the TON/USDT pair turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned negative and every relief rally is being sold into. That will increase the risk of a fall to $1.60.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) continued its decline in the past few days and reached near the target objective at $3.50 on Oct. 12. This level is likely to act as a solid support.
On the way up, the 20-day EMA ($3.95) is the key level to keep an eye on. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will signal that traders are selling on relief rallies. That could enhance the prospects of a drop below $3.50.
Contrarily, if bulls drive and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the markets have rejected the lower levels. That may trap the aggressive bears, resulting in a short squeeze toward the downtrend line.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) continues to weaken toward the critical support at $0.49, indicating that the bulls are not risking a buy at higher levels.
In a range, traders generally buy near the support and sell close to the resistance. In this case, the bulls are likely to buy the dips to $0.49 with vigor. If the price turns up from this level with strength, the MATIC/USDT pair may reach the moving averages.
If the price turns down sharply from the moving averages, it will increase the likelihood of a break below $0.49. If that happens, the pair could plunge to $0.45.
On the contrary, a rally above the moving averages will signal that the range-bound action may extend for a few more days.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
