Bitcoin has a chance to end 2023 at $35,000 despite heading lower in between, veteran analyst Filbfilb believes.
In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader reveals some BTC price targets that should resonate with the long-term holder base.
Bitcoin faces multiple obstacles to its current uptrend, and the current cycle offers various key differences from those that came before it. It is not just the Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) debacle; the entire macroeconomic environment looks markedly different from just a few years ago.
Filbfilb predicts that the April 2024 block subsidy halving will nonetheless have a cathartic effect on BTC price performance. BTC/USD could even trade as high as $46,000 by that time, but losses are “likely” to come next.
Filbfilb eyes “likely” BTC price dip to low $20,000 range
Cointelegraph (CT): On short timeframes, you recently predicted another BTC price dip to “crush the remaining hopium.” Where do you see the long-term floor?
Filbfilb (FF): This depends on circumstances; as we saw during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, the floor was slightly north of $3,000, so I would expect the lows of around $16,000 seen following the FTX crash to be maintained. However, avoiding a black swan event, somewhere in the low $20,000s seems likely.
CT: Do you still expect a reversal in price behavior in Q4 as miners and smart money “buy the rumor” on the halving?
FF: Based on the previous cycles, we have seen a contraction of new emitted supply to market in advance of the halving. Coupled by increased speculative demand, this dynamic is likely to repeat in my opinion.
CT: Speaking of miners, what’s your stance on price versus hash rate, considering how the latter continues to see new highs?
FF: I’ve not been able to attribute a direct correlation between hash rate and price.
CT: What’s surprised you about BTC price action this year compared to other pre-halving years?
FF: There has been a failure to break the 100-week moving average thus far, which is a notable difference. In the past, this has confirmed the bull market to some extent. Timing-wise, the uptick from the 2022 lows is in line with what we have seen previously.
CT: A lot has been made about the outcome of the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit last week. How significant do you think the news really is? Do you see a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF approval on the horizon?
FF: The SEC seemingly has a policy of “delay at all costs,” which has now included unreasonable rejection. If you look at how the room is behaving — i.e., BlackRock et al. putting in a number of filings for ETFs — it would seem highly unlikely that the biggest institutional asset managers will have done little due diligence and would anticipate failure. In my humble opinion, it is a matter of “when” it will be approved rather than “if.”
CT: You’ve called U.S. inflation the “elephant in the room” this cycle — how might this impact Bitcoin post-halving next year?
FF: The longer inflation and rates remain high, the less disposable income retail has to invest. Additionally, the cost of capital has generally increased due to the risk-free rate of return being higher; this means asset allocation toward riskier assets becomes less attractive. The longer this remains the status quo, the less capital will seek investments such as Bitcoin.
CT: What are your preferred noise-free metrics for tracking BTC’s price?
FF: On a high level, directional price momentum, coupled with market positioning (such as long/short ratios, funding rates and open interest), underpins what I am looking at in the market overall when determining shorter-term moves.
CT: What’s your BTC price target for the end of the year and at the 2024 halving?
FF: Assuming no black swan event, around $35,000 by the end of the year and possibly as high as $46,000 some time pre-halving in Q1 2024.
DOGE, XRP stand out among altcoins
CT: Bitcoin aside, are you surprised by the NFT market collapse? Does it have a future?
FF: I am unsurprised about the NFT collapse. I do think there is some utility in some forms of NFTs, such as for ticketing and music applications; however, massively overpriced works of “art” was never something I could understand.
CT: Are there any altcoins in particular that you think can moon particularly hard in the new cycle?
FF: At the moment, I am mostly focused on Bitcoin; altcoins tend to make their move after the halving. However, I would expect XRP to do quite well next cycle due to its legal case with the SEC and effectively playing catch-up in market share. I’d also not rule out Dogecoin doing well once again, particularly if Elon Musk integrates crypto into X.
